Tropical Depression Likely to Form This Week Over the Gulf of Mexico

The remnants of Hurricane Agatha moved onshore Monday on the Pacific Coast of Mexico and will move east to northeastward across the Yucatán Peninsula and will emerge over the northeastern parts of the Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is giving a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system once again. Tropical depression formation is likely; but, if it becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Alex. It will move northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico throughout the week and move across the Florida Peninsula on Friday and Saturday, bringing with it heavy rains and breezy conditions.

Once it moves out over the Atlantic, it will continue to move away to the northeast and will become a fish storm. Odds are high that it will be at tropical storm strength by Sunday just off the coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

While the system will not make a direct impact on the Alabama and Western Florida Gulf Coasts, there may be an increased risk of rip currents late this week and through the weekend. Here is the latest from the NHC:

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (05/31/2022 @ 1 pm CDT)

Near the Yucatán Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatán Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatán Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatán Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

• Formation chance through 48 hours… low… near 30 percent.
• Formation chance through 5 days… high… 70 percent.