Wednesday Morning Look At Today’s Severe Threat

The main event will be a line of strong to severe storms that will begin its trek across North/Central Alabama during the early evening hours today and will exit the area during the early morning hours on Thursday. This will be a very dynamic system as there will be tons of wind energy, but the good news is that this setup does not look favorable to be a significant tornado threat. However, a few spin-up tornadoes will be possible along the main line of storms. Here is the breakdown for this event…

• MODERATE RISK (level 4/5)
West of a line from roughly Florence (Lauderdale Co.) to Alabaster (Shelby Co.) to Troy (Pike Co.).

• ENHANCED RISK (level 3/5)
Nearly the rest of the area east of the Moderate Risk to the AL/GA state line.

MAIN THREATS
Damaging winds will be a major threat as thunderstorm wind gusts could reach 70-80 mph, especially in the moderate risk areas with the strongest winds possible over the northwestern parts of the area.

There is a small tornado threat with this system, especially with brief spin-up tornadoes along the line of storms. The good news is that discrete cell formation does not look likely at this time for much of the area. However, conditions may become conducive enough that one or two may develop over the northwestern parts of the area. If that is the case, there will be the potential of a strong, long-track tornado of EF2 strength or greater.

Hail up to one inch in diameter may be possible within the Moderate Risk locations, but not likely for the rest of the area.

TIMING
• 5 pm – 10 pm: West of a line from Huntsville (Madison Co.) to Whitfield (Sumter Co.).

• 8 pm – 2 am: East of that to a line from Hopewell (Cleburne Co.) to Macedonia (Lowndes Co.).

• 11 pm – 6 am: East of a line from Hopewell (Cleburne Co.) to Macedonia (Lowndes Co.) to the AL/GA state line.

HIGH WIND WARNING & WIND ADVISORIES
Gusty winds will start during the late morning hours on Wednesday as sustained winds will be averaging 15-25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in the advisory areas, and up to 60 mph or greater in the High Wind Warning area.

• High Wind Warning (Wed. 9 am to Thu. 1 am):
Colbert, Franklin, Lauderdale, and Lawrence counties in North Alabama.

• High Wind Warning (Wed. 5 pm to 10 pm):
Fayette, Lamar, Marion, Pickens, and Winston counties in Central Alabama.

• Wind Advisory (Wed. 9 am to Thu. 1 am):
Colbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Franklin, Jackson, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Marshall, and Morgan counties in North Alabama.

• Wind Advisory (Wed. 9 am to 5 pm):
Fayette, Lamar, Marion, Pickens, and Winston counties in Central Alabama.

• Wind Advisory (Wed. 9 am to Thu. 1 am):
Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Dallas, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Lowndes, Marengo, Perry, Shelby, St. Clair, Sumter, Tuscaloosa, and Walker counties in Central Alabama.

• Wind Advisory (Wed. 9 am to Thu. 4 am):
Barbour, Bullock, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Coosa, Elmore, Etowah, Lee, Macon, Montgomery, Pike, Randolph, Russell, Talladega, and Tallapoosa counties in Central Alabama.

HEAVY RAINFALL
From 1 am Wednesday through 12 pm Thursday, rainfall amounts will range from as low as 1.00-1.50 inches for much of the area, to as high as 2.00-3.00 inches in some locations over the southern half of the area. A few minor flash flooding issues may arise with the already-saturated ground.

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