TODAY: Strong to severe storms will be possible today as we’ll have a shortwave slowly move through the area starting this afternoon with the threats continuing through the night and overnight hours, and will not be ending until the mid to late afternoon hours on Thursday. With dewpoints well up into the 60s and even reaching at or over 70 degrees later this evening, mixed with a good bit of instability, and shear up in the 50-60 knot range, the ingredients will be there for severe storm formation. Highs ill be in the lower 70s to the lower 80s.
An Enhanced Risk is up for the northwest corner of the state, roughly along and west of a line from Hackleburg to Decatur to just west of Hazel Green. A Slight Risk is up south and east of that to a line stretching from Livingston to Clanton to Alexander City. A Marginal Risk is up for the rest of Central Alabama.
The main threat for today will be damaging winds up to 60 mph, with a smaller threat for a few tornadoes and large hail. The threats will be greater in the enhanced risk locations, especially the tornado threat.
Timing for the threat of severe storms will start around noon in the northwestern parts of the area and will slowly progress southeastward throughout the day, with the threat not starting for much of the I-59 corridor until around or just after 6 pm. The threat will continue through the late-night and overnight hours and will not start for the southern and southeastern parts of the area until around 4 am Thursday morning. The threat will finally come to an end around 3 pm Thursday afternoon.
THURSDAY: A Marginal Risk for severe storms is up on Thursday for the south and southeastern portions of Central Alabama, mainly along and south of a line from Marion to Talladega Springs to Heflin.
Showers and storms may end for a while for most locations after the severe threat ends on Thursday afternoon, locations in the south and southeastern parts of the area may continue to see showers with a few rumbles of thunder through the evening and nighttime hours. Temperatures will remain elevated as there is no cold front involved with this system. Highs will be throughout the 70s across the area.
FRIDAY: A Marginal Risk for severe storms has been introduced for the northern half of the area on Friday, as a warm front will begin to move northward through the area. Showers and storms will be increasing throughout the day as the front moves northward, and with better forcing being present approaching the area with the next system, a few isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph may be possible in the risk area. Highs will be in the lower 70s to the lower 80s.
SATURDAY: Our next threat for severe storms will come on Saturday as a strong cold front will approach and eventually enter Central Alabama. We’ll have the ingredients in place where we could possibly see a threat of damaging winds up to 60 mph, large hail, and a tornado or two. The SPC continues the equivalent of a Slight Risk for nearly all of North/Central Alabama, except for the extreme southeastern parts of the area. Timing for the threat of strong to severe storms looks to be during the afternoon through the late-night hours. Highs will be in the 70s.
SUNDAY: The system should be out of the area by Sunday afternoon, but we could see some wrap-around moisture on the backside of the surface low that may invade the north and northeastern parts of the area. Temperatures will be falling throughout the day, with highs occurring during the early parts of the day. Temperatures look to be in the upper 40s to the mid-60s at noon, and dropping into the upper 30s to the upper 50s by 5 pm. Overnight lows will be in the mid-20s to the lower 30s.
NEXT WEEK: High pressure will be in control on Monday, and we’ll have sunny skies, but temperatures will remain very cool. Highs will only be in the lower 40s to the lower 50s. Much of the same story on Tuesday, but it will be a little warmer. Highs will be throughout the 50s across the area. Looking at the National Blend of Models for the temperatures for the rest of next week, we see that we will warm back up into the 60s by Thursday, before another cold front moves through on Friday that will drop the highs back down into the 50s.