Pesky Clouds Hide the Sun For Most This Afternoon; Severe Threats on Wednesday & This Weekend

As of 2:50 pm, skies across North/Central Alabama remain partly to mostly cloudy, but that has not held back those afternoon temperatures. Those temperatures are running in the upper 60s to the upper 70s according to the 2 pm roundup. It was 78 degrees in Troy, while the cool spot was Haleyville at 67 degrees. Birmingham was sitting at 74 degrees. These temperatures are probably right at or just a degree or two under the afternoon highs. For now, radar is free from any detectable rainfall, but a few sprinkles are possible across the area. For tonight, it will be a mild night with partly to mostly cloudy skies, with some locations in the southeastern parts of the area having to deal with some patchy dense fog. Temperatures will only drop into the lower 60s across the area.

18z high-resolution NAM valid Tuesday at 12 pm.

Tomorrow’s weather will once again feature plenty of cloudy, with only a few breaks of sunshine. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will begin flowing across Central Alabama, which will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers for much of the area, with the higher probabilities along and west of a line from Demopolis to Clanton to Anniston. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 70s in the north to the upper 70s in the south, with a few locations in the extreme southeastern parts reaching the 80-degree mark. No thunderstorm activity is expected to occur throughout the day on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY’S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: The Storm Prediction Center continues to have much of North/Central Alabama in a level 2/5 Slight Risk for severe storms on their Day Three Severe Weather Outlook graphic for Wednesday, which includes all locations along and west of a line from roughly Selma to Montgomery to Heflin. A level 1/5 Marginal Risk is up east of that for the rest of the area, except for the eastern parts of Barbour and Russell counties.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the risk areas starting on Wednesday afternoon and will go through the evening and into the late-night hours on Wednesday. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main threat, but a brief spin-up tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Much of this thunderstorm activity looks to be scattered in nature, but a short wave will move into the area late into the day that will provide just enough lift to get convective storms firing off. However, better dynamics will be farther to the north and will limit the potential for a larger tornado threat.

When not raining, skies will be mainly cloudy across Central Alabama, with afternoon highs reaching the lower 70s to right around 80 degrees across the area from northwest to southeast.

ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT FOR THE WEEKEND: Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible starting on Saturday afternoon and persisting into the morning hours on Sunday, with the potential for all modes of severe weather. While it is too early to be confident on how high those threats will be, the Storm Prediction Center already has placed a good portion of North/Central Alabama in the equivalent of a level 2/5 Slight Risk for severe storms on Saturday, roughly along and west of the I-59 corridor.

Models have shown some inconsistencies in the previous runs, but the last couple of runs have started to show more of a consistent look, which is starting to show that this system may be a little stronger than the one that will move through on Wednesday. However, we will need to get through Wednesday’s event before starting to focus on the weekend.

We are in the start of our winter stretch of our main severe weather season in Central Alabama, and we need to take each stronger system with caution. With these warmer temperatures, it would only be a matter of time before the potential for severe storms would occur. Take time to go over your severe weather safety plans and be sure your safety kits are refreshed, and your safe place is ready to go. Have multiple ways to receive warning, especially on your mobile device and weather radios.

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