At Midday on Christmas Day — Warm and Dry Through Monday; Severe Threat Introduced for Wednesday


REST OF YOUR CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: While most of the area’s skies have cleared out, some of the northern and northeastern parts of the area are still putting up with some cloud cover. This cloud cover could keep the afternoon highs from reaching the forecasted potential for today. For now, temperatures were in the mid-60s to the lower 70s across the area as of the 11 am roundup. Afternoon highs should reach the 70s all across the area today. Skies will be partly to mostly clear tonight, with lows only dropping into the mid-50s to the lower 60s. Sunday will be another fantastic and just downright warm for late December, as highs will top out in the mid to upper 70s for most across Central Alabama.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Monday will be another dry and warm day across Central Alabama, with a good bit of sun and highs in the lower 70s to the lower 80s from northwest to southeast. Moisture will start to increase over the southeast on Tuesday as we’ll have a southwesterly flow in place out ahead of an approaching storm system. A few scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will be possible, but severe weather does not look to be possible at this time. Highs will be in the mid-70s to the lower 80s.

SEVERE STORM THREAT ON WEDNESDAY: The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of Mississippi, a good chunk of North/Central Alabama, and a very small portion of southeastern Arkansas and northeastern Louisiana in a 15% risk for severe storms valid from Wednesday at 6 am to Thursday at 6 am. There will be a warm sector that will feature higher humidity levels out ahead of a strong cold front that may lead to the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms with the risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

The timing, location, and strength of the approaching system will be better defined as we get closer to the event as there is some inconsistency in the models. However, there has been consistency with the models showing the potential for surface-based storms in an environment with a good amount of instability and strong shear present. For now, this outlined risk would equate to a level 2/5 Slight Risk for severe storms during this time frame. We’ll have to watch and see if the models come into better agreement ad if the risk level needs to be increased.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: We’ll continue to have a good chance of showers and storms for Thursday, especially out ahead of the front. For now, the SPC has not outlined an area for severe weather, but there will continue to be a good amount of instability in the warm sector ahead of the front. I would say locations along and south of I-59 may have a risk for stronger storms with a couple possibly becoming severe, but at now it is way too early to be certain. By sunrise on Friday, much if not all the activity will be out of the area, but skies may continue to stay partly to mostly cloudy.

NEXT WEEKEND: Another whopper of a system looks to move through the southeast starting on Saturday, with the potential of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms out ahead of a strong cold front. Much of the action will move in on Sunday as a surface low with the front will move through the area during the second half of the day. Once again, it is way too early to be certain, but there looks to be a strong to severe thunderstorm threat on both days. We’ll have to keep our eyes on the models.

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