Moisture will pull back up into Central Alabama on Monday, which will bring back the mugginess and a chance of a few isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms, mainly over the southern half of the area. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Nearly the same story on Tuesday except for the rain chances now including all of Central Alabama. While it will be quite muggy, afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
Showers and storms will be likely at times across Central Alabama on Wednesday, with the activity being most active during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the lower to mid-80s. It’s pretty much the same story on Thursday, as increased moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms likely at times, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. And really no change for Friday as well… Showers and storms will be likely at times, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
The higher moisture levels continue through the weekend, as scattered to numerous showers and storms will be likely at times on both days, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A weak front will move into the area for Sunday that will help fire off a greater coverage of showers and storms; plus, temperatures will be a little cooler. Saturday’s highs will be in the mid-80s to the lower 90s, then dropping back to the lower to mid-80s for everyone along and north of the I-85 and US-80 corridors, and reaching the upper 80s south of that.
As of the 10 pm Sunday night update; Tropical Storm Elsa had slightly strengthened with maximum sustained winds at 65 MPH with gusts up to 75 mph. The minimum central pressure was down to 1004 mb. The center was located around 270 miles to the southeast of Havana, Cuba, and was moving to the northwest at 15 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will approach south-central Cuba late tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some additional strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.
Portions of the west to southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula could experience a storm surge ranging from 1-2 feet to as high as 2-4 feet. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef, Florida Bay, and the west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote River. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday night. A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.
Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.
Unless there is a major shift in the forecast track on now Tropical Storm Elsa, we will see no effects on our weather from her. However, the influx of tropical moisture across the southeast will elevate our rainfall chances from midweek through the weekend. The rest of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico is free from any tropical mischief and no new tropical cyclones are expected over the next five days.