Trending Dryer & Less Humid for the Work Week; Tropical Mischief a Possibility by the Weekend

The Workweek Ahead

A front will slowly push through North/Central Alabama during the day on Monday that will start to bring in cooler and less humid air in from the north. Only a few isolated showers will be possible over the northern 2/3rds of the area, while higher chances will persist over the southern 1/3rd. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid-90s.

Tuesday through Friday will be cooler with lower humidity levels with plenty of sunshine on each day. Humidity levels will start to creep back up on Friday, so it will be a little less comfortable. No rain at this time through Friday night. Highs will be in the mid-80s to the mid-90s on Tuesday, the lower 80s to the lower 90s on Wednesday and Thursday, and back up into the mid-80s to the lower 90s on Friday.

The Central Alabama Weekend

It looks like we may have some tropical moisture to deal with starting on Saturday afternoon as we’ll have a potential tropical system moving onshore to our south-southwest. More of that moisture moves in on Sunday as the low is modeled to be somewhere in west-central Mississippi. While it is still too early to be certain on track or strength, we may have to deal with a brief spin-up tropical-type tornado or two. We’ll have a better idea as we get further into the week. Saturday’s highs will be in the mid-80s to the lower 90s, then dropping back into the lower to mid-80s for much of the area on Sunday, with upper 80s possible in the southeastern parts.

Tropical Update

INVEST 92L: A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche is associated with a broad low pressure area, and the system has changed little in organization since earlier today. Some slow development is possible during the next few days while the low meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. NHC gives a 50% chance of forming into at least a depression within the next five days.

We also have a non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 150 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move northeastward for the next few days near the Gulf Stream waters, which could allow for some tropical development to occur while it moves away from the United States. The low should be over cold waters south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its development chances. NHC only gives it a 20% chance of forming into at least a depression within the next five days.

On This Day in Weather History

1886… Many people were lost when high seas from a hurricane inundated the area near Sabine, Texas.

1903… The “Heppner Disaster” occurred in Oregon. A cloudburst in the hills sent a flood down Willow Creek, and a twenty-foot wall of water swept away a third of the town in minutes, killing 236 residents and causing 100 million dollars damage.

1989… Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf States to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region during the day and into the night. There were 62 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds caused 28 million dollars damage in Montgomery County, MD.

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