Sally Forecast to Be a Hurricane on Monday; Hurricane Conditions Expected Along the Northern Gulf Coast on Monday

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…27.8N 85.9W
ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 85.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late Monday and Monday night. Sally is expected to move slowly northward near the southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi coasts through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible before the center nears the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 996 MB (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

• The mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft
• Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…4-7 ft
• Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border…4-7 ft
• Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
• MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay…2-4 ft
• AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
• Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
_______________

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight and are expected within the warning area beginning Monday.
_______________

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. This rainfall will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers in Mississippi and Alabama.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia, and western North Carolina. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding are possible across this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.
_______________

TORNADOES: The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase Monday afternoon and evening over parts of the western Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana.
_______________

SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s