The system is now forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area later today.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and continue to intensify Sunday and Monday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 MB (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical-storm-force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8-inch amounts over the Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to the Tampa Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida.
The depression is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana Sunday and 2 to 4 inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.
SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over southern Florida.