Two Tropical Systems Could Impact The Gulf Coast Early Next Week

TD-13 Likely to Strengthen Into a Tropical Storm Today

As of 10:00 am CDT, the center of TD-13 was located around 750 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and moving to the west-northwest at 21 MPH. The maximum sustained winds were at 35 MPH. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

People along the Alabama and Western Florida Gulf Coasts will need to closely watch this developing situation and be prepared to act. Remember, it may take a little longer and be a little more complex to try to complete everything needed to get supplies and secure belongings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Be vigilant.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday.

2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system’s progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


TD-14 Forms Over the West-Central Caribbean Sea

As of 10:00 am CDT, the center of TD-14 was located around 235 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border and moving to the west at 21 MPH. The maximum sustained winds were at 35 MPH. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just north of the northeastern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands on Friday and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands beginning tonight through Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday, and watches could be required for a portion of that area later today.

2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.


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