TAKING A LOOK OUTSIDE AT 11:16 AM
Skies are mostly clear across nearly all of Central Alabama with the exception of some cloud cover encroaching into the northwestern parts of the area from Mississippi. Radar is quiet across the area with the only shower activity at this moment was located in the extreme northeastern parts of Jackson County and moving into Georgia. Temperatures as of the official 11:00 am readings were in the 80s across Central Alabama. Birmingham was the warm spot at 88 degrees while Haleyville was the cool spot at 81 degrees.
SHOWER & STORM ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
While it is quiet for now, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop shortly with those becoming likely for locations along and east of the I-65 corridor with chances lessening as you move west from I-65. We could see a few strong storms to isolated severe storms with brief damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size possible. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to the mid-90s from northwest to southeast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to continue into the evening and late-night hours with the coverage and intensity decreasing the later you go into the night and overnight hours. Lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
SHOWERS & STORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY
Moisture will be in abundance over Central Alabama and we’ll have showers and thunderstorms becoming likely with the heating of the day. Once again, we could see a few strong storms to isolated severe storms with brief damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size possible with the higher likelihood for those along and south of I-20. While afternoon highs will be a little cooler, the amount of moisture will keep it muggy. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the area.
LATEST FROM THE NHC: THREE SYSTEMS TO WATCH IN THE TROPICS
INVEST 97L: A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds in these thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph across the central Caribbean Sea. After that time, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through the next five days is high at 80 percent.
INVEST 98L: An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the disturbance. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through the next five days is high at 90 percent.
NEW TROPICAL WAVE: A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea and Sierra-Leone, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through the next five days is low at 20 percent.
It is too early to tell where exactly these systems will go and how strong they will get. We’ll really need to keep our eyes on 97L as it has the highest potential to make it into the Gulf of Mexico. A weaker system will keep its path mostly to the west and toward the Mexico or South Texas coast. A stronger system would curve more to the north which could make landfall anywhere from Morgan City, Louisiana, to as far east as St. Petersburg, Florida. We’ll have a much better idea once it becomes better organized. Don’t cancel any beach trips yet, but keep on-guard if you’re heading to the Alabama Gulf Coast for the weekend and into next week.