SUMMARY: Pulse storms developing with a few damaging wind gusts possible, watch issuance unlikely.
DISCUSSION: Visible satellite/radar trends show widespread convective development occurring in response to strong diabatic heating. Ample ambient low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the low to mid-70s) combined with day time heating has resulted in MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg across the region. Despite moderate instability, flow throughout the troposphere is generally weak. Thus, pulse convection is expected to be the predominant mode, although some merging of outflow may allow the convection to coalesce. These outflows may produce sporadic damaging winds gusts with the strongest cells. However, widespread coverage is not expected, and therefore watch issuance is unlikely for the remainder of the afternoon.
Taken from the latest SPC’s Mesoscale Discussion #1454.