A Brief Look at the Potential for Strong to Severe Storms for Later Today

As of 8:34 am, we have a good bit of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity mainly south of the I-59 corridor across the area and north of the I-85 corridor. At this point, none of these appear to be strong, but that could change as we get into the afternoon and the main heating of the day.

NWS Birmingham has a Level 1 Marginal Risk for severe storms up for today for locations along and east of a line from Demopolis to Tuscaloosa to Cullman, with the main window for the potential of strong to severe storms starting at 1:00 pm in the western-half of the risk area and coming to an end around 8:00 pm in the eastern half.

Damaging winds up to 60 MPH and dime to nickel size hail will be the threats with this event. There are not enough dynamics to warrant a tornado threat, but with thunderstorms in Alabama, you have to expect the unexpected. Here is the breakdown of the timing across Central Alabama for today:

West of a line from Demopolis to Tuscaloosa to Cullman, storms should stay below severe limits.

East of that to a line from Fort Deposit to Ashland to Piedmont, the main window for the potential of strong to severe storms will be from 1:00 pm to 6:00 pm.

For the rest of the east and southeastern parts of Central Alabama, the main window for the potential of strong to severe storms will be from 2:00 pm to 8:00 pm.

Any storms that form in this atmosphere ahead of the cold front could potentially be heavy rain producers. Precipitable water values are above 1.90 inches and reaching as high as 2.10 inches in the southwestern parts of the area. Those values mean that there is plenty of moisture available in the atmosphere and storms will be able to transport that to the surface rather easily. We’ll have to watch for ponding in poor-drainage areas and a few flood advisories or even a brief flash flood warning may be needed.

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