SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…20.5N 89.8W
ABOUT 35 MI…60 KM SSE OF MERIDA MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI…960 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 89.8 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center will move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico this evening, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday evening.
Satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that Cristobal’s maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. An elevated observing site from Isla Perez, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 MB (29.53 inches).
KEY MESSAGES
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Florida Big Bend, in portions of southeastern Louisiana, and along the Mississippi coast within the next 48 hours, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for these areas.
3. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force winds beginning Sunday morning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
4. Heavy rainfall will spread onto portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding and rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers possible.
Central Alabama Weather 