A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic early next week.
LOCATION AND STATS:
Location … 23.7°N 81.2°W
Maximum Winds … 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure … 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation … 90 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind … 60 NM
Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are in effect. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier, if necessary.