The good news is that the threat of severe storms has really lessened with the latest runs of the forecast models. It now looks like an outflow of cooler air out ahead of the approaching system will hinder much of the ingredients needed for severe storm development.
We still have the potential for two rounds of showers and thunderstorms with the first moving through the area during the morning hours in a linear fashion and the second round coming during the afternoon and early evening hours starting off in a scattered fashion then becoming linear before moving out of the state.
Timing for the threat of strong to severe storms will be from 6:00 am Wednesday morning to 6:00 pm Wednesday evening from west to east. There may be some refinement to those start and end times as we get closer to the event, but this is based on the current model trends as of now.
There is a little difference in the thinking in the threat levels from NWS Birmingham and the Storm Prediction Center. The above outlook is what NWS Birmingham is showing on their webpage for the severe weather threat on Wednesday, which has all of Central Alabama in a LEVEL 1 MARGINAL RISK during the day.
The Storm Prediction Center has much of the eastern half of Central Alabama in a LEVEL 2 SLIGHT RISK for severe storms throughout the day on Wednesday while the rest of Central Alabama is in a LEVEL 1 MARGINAL RISK.
The one thing that they both do agree on is that the main threat will be from isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH. The ingredients just do not line up enough to have a hail or tornado threat, but as this is our main severe weather season in Central Alabama, expect the unexpected.
I’ll be back this evening with another update. Stay tuned.
Central Alabama Weather 