Brief Update As We Head Toward 5:00 PM

As of 4:20 pm, the warm front continues to have a hard time pushing to the north due to the rain-cooled air and outflow boundaries that are shunting that northward movement a little. Looking at the image above, where those red lines are stacked very close together, the warm front is located just to the north of those lines. By the way, those red lines stand for lines of equal instability values. Those quickly climb from 0 to 3000 J/kg at a very short distance. By this image, I would say that the warm front is located roughly around Cuba (Sumter Co.) to Lowndesboro (Lowndes Co.) to just south of Brundidge (Pike Co.).

North of the warm front at this point, we may see strong to isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH and some hail with any storms that become strong to severe, but those will be hard to come by as the air is more stable and storm activity is elevated.

Just to the south of the warm front, a tornado warning was issued for portions of Choctaw County in southwestern Alabama. We’ll have to watch that cell and see if the signature stays together as it makes its way towards Marengo County. Heads up in Myrtlewood, Linden, Miller, Providence, Thomaston, Dayton, and Faunsdale as this cell is headed in your general direction.

The warm front is expected to move northward throughout the evening until the main short wave and surface low moves through the area. It will stay south of the I-20 corridor and I believe it may only make it as far north as Aliceville to Montevallo to Roanoke. If that is the case, the best chance for severe storms with the higher tornado threat will be south of those locations while isolated strong to severe storms will be possible north of that line.

Flooding rains would be the main concern for the northern half of the area as we have already seen 2-4 inches over some locations and with more to come. Remember, a FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect until 1:00 am for nearly all of Central Alabama.

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