Potential For Severe Storms On Sunday Night

A strong system will be moving through the southeast on Sunday that will have the potential for severe storms to impact Central Alabama. All modes of severe weather will be possible: tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60-70 MPH, and hail up to the size of a quarter. At this point, the timing looks to be from roughly 6:00 pm Sunday evening through roughly 2:00 am Monday morning.

NAM 12km model valid at 7:00 pm Sunday evening.

The latest run of the lower resolution NAM shows a strong surface low beginning to move into the western parts of the area around 7:00 pm. It will be moving in a northeasterly direction, pulling a warm front up to the north out ahead of it. Much of the area will be in the warm, unstable sector at this time which may allow for the formation of a few supercells that are capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. The low will be bringing a cold front through the area and a squall line is expected to be along or just ahead of the front. The main threat will shift to damaging winds, but a few embedded tornadoes will remain possible, along with hail.

The sounding from the same model run at the same time shows a forecast CAPE value (instability) well over 3000 J/kg. Helicity values are on the lower side, around 174 m2/s2 which is enough for rotating updrafts, but the expectation is that helicity will be on the increase until the front arrives and passes. There will be sufficient wind shear as well, so the ingredients are there to support the threats mentioned above.

At this point, the Significant Tornado Parameter values are in the 1.0-3.6 range across the central and southern portions of the area with the above image valid at 7:00 pm on Sunday night. The good news is that this system does not appear to be as strong as the Easter Sunday event, but do not sleep on this one as the potential is there for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail.

You know the drill… Have your emergency supplies, your safety plan, and your place of safety ready to go. Be sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings and do not rely just on the sound of an outdoor siren. You cannot ride out a tornado in a mobile/manufactured home. Have a plan to get to a more sturdy structure or to a storm shelter.

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