This week’s forecast has been a tricky one as models have been all over the board with how it is handling the rain and thunderstorms we are supposed to see throughout the week ahead and just how strong they were going to be. At this point, we do not have any severe weather expected throughout the entire seven days through Easter Sunday… BUT… the more reliable European model has been showing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with a potent shortwave moving through on Saturday on a couple of runs, but it has not been consistent compared run-to-run. The GFS has been consistent with a nice and dry weekend with mild temperatures. At this point, I will side with the GFS as it has the runs that have stayed pretty similar. We’ll still need to watch as we are in the Spring Severe Weather Season. #ExpectTheUnexpected
So, here is the forecast for Monday through Easter Sunday:
SUNDAY’S HIGHS
Alexander City … 80
Anniston … 83
Auburn … 80
Birmingham … 82
Calera (NWS Birmingham) … 82
Demopolis … 83
Gadsden … 82
Haleyville … 79
Montgomery … 84
Selma … 84
Troy … 83
Tuscaloosa … 84
A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY’S WEATHER ON MONDAY
While high pressure will be located off the Atlantic Coast of Florida, warm and moist air will flow into the area throughout the day on Monday. The good news is that we lack any lifting mechanism for any showers or storms to develop. Therefore, we’ll have dry and warm weather throughout the area with mostly clear skies. Afternoon highs across the area will range from the lower 80s in the north to the mid-80s in the south.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY ON TUESDAY; ACTIVITY INCREASES LATE
There will be a weak impulse approaching Central Alabama during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday that will allow rain chances to increase before sunrise. We could see a few scattered showers, and with some limited instability, a thunderstorm or two is not out of the question, especially over the northern half of Central Alabama through much of the daylight hours. Once we get to the evening hours, there will be a decent chance of rain for all of the area. Afternoon highs across the area will range from the mid-70s in the north to the lower 80s in the south.
A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY AFTER RAIN DIMINISHES EARLY
The latest model runs have really backed off on the number of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday, as those rain chances will be diminishing during the morning hours. The rest of your Wednesday looks to be dry with partly cloudy skies. Afternoon highs across the area will range from the lower 80s in the north to the mid-80s in the south.
COLD FRONT MOVES IN BRINGING LIMITED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
A cold front will move through the area on Thursday, but with the dynamics being so far off to our north, much of the rain will be limited to a chance of showers and maybe a few claps of thunder for much of Central Alabama during the day. Rain and storms look to become likely mainly for the southern half of the area and down into South Alabama through the early evening and into the overnight hours. Afternoon highs across the area will range from the lower 70s in the northwest to the mid-80s in the southeast.
COLD FRONT & RAIN MOVES OUT; COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN
The front pushes out of the southeastern parts of Central Alabama early in the day on Friday which will bring an end to any lingering shower activity for the area. Skies look to become partly cloudy to mostly clear. Afternoon highs across the area will range from the mid-60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south.
THE CENTRAL ALABAMA WEEKEND
There is a little model madness for the weekend as the GFS shows a dry weekend across Central Alabama while the latest run of the European model shows a strong shortwave moving through with the potential of stronger to severe storms. The European has not been consistent with its runs while the GFS has held pretty firm over the last couple of days. The Canadian model is in near agreement with the GFS, so that is where I’ll go as well. Skies will be mostly sunny on both days with Saturday’s highs across the area ranging from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south. Sunday’s highs across the area will range from the lower 70s in the north to the upper 70s in the south.
Central Alabama Weather 