Potential For Stronger To Severe Storms On Wednesday (March 4th)

I know it is really far out at this point, but the latest global models are painting a potential of strong to severe storms during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, March 4th.

As of the latest run of the European model, there will be a good flow of warmer and very moist air flowing up into Central Alabama ahead of a strong cold front with the front moving through the area during the pre-dawn hours and into the later morning hours on Wednesday.

There will be a decent amount of instability out ahead of the front along with a good bit of shear. I know it is very early, but this could be a setup for a mainly damaging wind event with a squall line just ahead of the front with the possibility of a brief spin-up tornado. We could also see some supercells develop out ahead of the squall line feeding off of the untapped instability that could potentially produce tornadoes.

I’ll be able to get better information as we get closer to the event, with the higher resolution models hitting about 60 hours out from the event. I just wanted to throw this out there so you will already have a head’s up and be prepared just in case this turns out. Below are the model images that I have used.

Instability (CAPE) 12:00 am.
Instantaneous Flash Rate (lightning) 12:00 am.
Wind Shear (850mb-250mb) 12:00 am.

I decided to use the European model as a reference due to its ability to better predict the conditions farther out than the GFS for our part of the country, but the GFS is showing the potential as well. Have a great evening.

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