Showers Out There At Midday; Potential For Severe Storms On Late Wednesday Through Thursday Morning

Conditions As Of 12:00 pm

Skies are cloudy across Central Alabama as we have reached the midday hour, along with some showers falling over the western parts of the area. Nothing heavy… just light showers causing drivers to use the low speed on the wipers out on the roadway. Temperatures are in the upper 50s to the lower 70s across the area. Cullman was the cool spot at 58 degrees while Montgomery was the warm spot at 73 degrees. Birmingham was sitting at 68 degrees.

Weather For The Rest Of Today

We will remain cloudy through the rest of your Tuesday and rain will once again become likely as a wave of rain and a few claps of thunder are expected to move through the area later this afternoon and into the late-night and overnight hours. None of these storms are expected to be severe. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the mid-70s across the area from northwest to southeast. With the cloud cover and flow of warmer and moist air from the south, overnight lows will only be in the upper 50s to the mid-60s.

Update on the Upcoming Severe Weather Threat

After joining in on the morning conference call with the National Weather Service in Birmingham, I have gathered the information that they want to be shared for the severe weather threat upcoming on Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is up for Wednesday through the early morning hours on Thursday for the southern parts of the area south of a line from Aliceville (Pickens Co.) to Birmingham (Jefferson Co.) to Eclectic (Macon Co.) to Hurtsboro (Russell Co.). North of that line is in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).

At this point, the high-resolution models are showing this event possibly occurring in two rounds of stronger to severe storms across parts of the area. The first round looks to affect the western half of Central Alabama starting as early as 3:00 pm and lasting as late as 8:00 pm. The threat of stronger to severe storms looks to be coming from individual cells to clusters of storms and not in an organized fashion. There will be a decent amount of instability along with a good bit of shear in place that we will have the threat of isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH and a brief tornado or two.

A second wave looks to move up from the southwest and affect the southern half of the area as another blast of instability moves up into the area ahead of the cold front. This is where a little higher threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Unfortunately, these storms look to take place during the overnight hours and into the early morning hours on Thursday with the main window starting at midnight and ending around 6:00 am.

There is a chance that the instability ahead of the second wave could move farther north into Central Alabama. If that looks to occur, NWS Birmingham will expand the Slight Risk farther to the north over the eastern half of the area. If any watches are issued, they will likely be tornado watches as there is a threat for a few tornadoes.

Much of the area will end up with rainfall totals of 2-3 inches between now and Thursday night, while locations in the southeastern parts of the area could see up to 3-4 inches. We could see some localized ponding or areal flooding occur with the heavier storms, but major flooding is not expected.

More updates to come through the day and through the event.

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