Rain Moves In Later Today; Severe Storm Threat On Monday

While it is a beautiful but cool morning across the northern half of Central Alabama, clouds are already hampering the sunshine over the southern half. Unfortunately, clouds and rain chances will be on the increase as we get later into the day as showers will move up from the south. Rain will become likely over the southeastern parts of the area before sunset while there will be a chance of showers as far west as Demopolis and Tuscaloosa and as far north as Morris and Gadsden. Highs look to top out in the 50s across the area.

Rain chances will continue to increase across the area from southeast to northwest during the evening through the overnight hours and all of the area will see a chance of showers. Rain will be likely along and south of a line from Demopolis to Montevallo to Gadsden and a few claps of thunder may be heard in those parts. Lows will get down into the lower to mid-40s.


I will be on a special webinar in just a few minutes to discuss the potential for severe storms and the forecast and timing of when the action may occur. At this point, models are showing a good bit of vertical shear and higher helicity during the day, and a strong low-level jet will be moving into Central Alabama. Mid-level lapse rates look to be supportive or severe storms and surface-based instability looks to be at or over 500 J/kg. Signs are pointing to the potential of an active day on Monday.

All modes of severe weather look to be possible: tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60 MPH, and hail of 1-inch in diameter. The main window for severe storms look to be from noon to midnight on Monday.

NWS Birmingham already has a Slight Risk for severe storms (level 2 of 5) up for locations along and west of a line from Hanceville to Vance to Demopolis and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) up for locations east of that line.

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