Just after 8:00 pm, the top portion of the main squall line is now entering the northwestern parts of North/Central Alabama while pre-frontal rain and thunderstorms continue over the northern half of the area especially north of the I-59 corridor. At this point, there are no severe weather watches or warnings in effect for the area, but a Tornado Watch continues for much of Central Mississippi.
At this point, there is not much instability to work with over much of the area, but we are starting to see an increase over the southwestern portions and those values should continue to creep up during the late-night hours.
We continue to see hourly model runs that show the instability to potentially rise into the 500-1000 J/kg range over the southern half of the area (mainly south of I-20 and I-59/20. While damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible across all of North/Central Alabama, the southern half will have a better chance of those during the overnight hours.
Helicity and shear will continue to stay elevated along and ahead of the front, and combined with the rising instability, that is the main reason why we continue to have a severe storm threat throughout the rest of the night and through the overnight hours.
The Storm Prediction Center continues a Slight Risk for the west and northwestern parts of North/Central Alabama, while a Marginal Risk continues for much of the rest of the area. The main window for stronger to severe storms will be from now through 7:00 am Sunday morning. The good news is that storms are already coming to an end over the northwestern quarter of Mississippi.
Updates will continue through the night and overnight hours.