The latest radar image at 5:52 pm shows rain and thunderstorms continuing over the extreme northern parts of North Alabama, and training of cells has led to the issuance of a flash flood warning for Colbert and Lauderdale counties until 8:00 pm. Other than that, no watches or warnings are in effect for anywhere across North/Central Alabama.
Latest Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis continues to show the threat of a few tornadoes throughout the nighttime and overnight hours across a good portion of Central Alabama. These are the Significant Tornado Parameters valid at 11:00 pm and it shows values up to two and a little over the west and west-central parts of the area.
Instability values continue to look a little more elevated than first forecast as the latest SPC model shows 500-1000 J/kg over the same locations as the higher values of STP. We’ll really have to watch for brief spin-up tornadoes over the west and southwestern parts of the area.
A Slight Risk continues for the west and northwestern parts of the area while a Marginal Risk is up for much of the rest of Central Alabama. While we have already had a severe thunderstorm warning earlier for Colbert and Lauderdale counties, the severe weather threat starts around 7:00 pm and is expected to go till 7:00 am Sunday. NWS Birmingham actually has all of the rest of Central Alabama in a Marginal Risk, so we’ll go with that and will keep an eye on the entire area tonight and overnight.