The main squall line that is out ahead of the cold front continues to make its slow march across Central Alabama as we have hit the 2 o’clock hour on Halloween. At this point, movement of the cells within this line is moving to the northeast at around 40-45 MPH, while the overall progression to the east is much slower.
The heaviest batch of rain is currently located south of a line from Carbon Hill to Adamsville and stretches southward to Eutaw to West Blocton. Those locations are seeing heavy rainfall but very little, if any, lightning at all. The rest of the activity is light to moderate in intensity.
At this point, we have some instability (500-1200 J/kg) and shear (30-50 kts) along and right ahead of the main squall line, but weak lapse rates and the lack of any lift has kept any storms from becoming strong to severe.
We are still expecting some strengthening to occur during the overnight hours and we still could have a few damaging thunderstorm wind gusts of 60 MPH and a low possibility of a brief tornado.
NWS Birmingham continues a Marginal Risk through 10:00 am for much of Central Alabama. Here is the expected timing from NWS Birmingham:
• From locations along and west of a line from Geiger to Jasper to Vinemont – now to 4:00 am.
• East of that to a line stretching from Orrville to Chelsea to Gadsden – 3:00 am to 7:00 am.
• East of that to a line stretching from Hayneville to Alexander City to Ranburne – 6:00 am to 10:00 am.
• East of that to the AL/GA state line – only isolated strong storms possible but not likely at this point.