Tornado Watch Unlikely For Parts Of North & Central Alabama

Strong low-level flow may mix down to the surface in association with narrow cold-frontal convective showers, especially in areas with more broken low-level cloud cover. Isolated strong/severe gusts possible. No WW is expected.

A narrow band of low-topped convection has developed along a sharp cold front in northwestern Alabama. Little to no lightning has been observed with this activity. While mixed-layer buoyancy on the order of a few hundred J/kg will limit overall intensity of these convective showers/thunderstorms, strong low-level flow (40-60 kts) in the lowest few kilometers) may mix down to the surface. Relative to surrounding areas, northwest Alabama exhibits more broken cloud cover on visible satellite, allowing for slightly better destabilization/low-level lapse rates. As such, a few strong/severe wind gusts may occur with this activity. Limited extent of this marginal threat precludes WW issuance.

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

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