Tornado Watch Not Likely For Now Across Southwest Alabama

SUMMARY…Threat for isolated damaging wind and a brief tornado or two will persist into the early afternoon from southwest AL into the western FL Panhandle. At this time, the threat does not appear sufficient for a weather watch, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION…As of mid-morning a broken line of low-topped convection with very little to no lightning extends from southwest AL into the northern Gulf moving east at 30 kt. This activity resides within a corridor of marginal instability with MLCAPE near or below 800 J/kg inland. Compact shortwave trough located over central MS is moving rapidly northeast and will result in the low-level jet gradually shifting northward away from the more unstable portion of the warm sector later this afternoon. In the meantime Mobile AL VWP still shows a large hodograph associated with a 50 kt low-level jet, supporting 300+ 0-1 km storm relative helicity just ahead of the convective line. Updraft rotation continues to be observed with some of the cells embedded within the line, and this environment will support at least a marginal risk for damaging wind with bowing segments as well as a tornado or two with low-topped supercells. The greatest tornado threat appears to be with convection moving onshore where the boundary layer is more moist and unstable. Marginal instability should remain the primary limiting factor, especially with a northward extent inland.

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