Latest Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Threat Continues For Southwest Alabama

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683 continues.

The threat for isolated tornadoes will persist this afternoon over the central Gulf coast region with the greatest threat through 19Z (2:00 pm) expected across southeast MS into southwest AL.

Warm front continues to advance inland along the central Gulf Coast and currently extends from extreme southeast LA to southeast MS and southwest AL where surface dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s F. The Mobile AL VWP shows veering low-level wind profiles with height in proximity to the warm front with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity from 150-200 m2/s2 for northward-moving storms. The primary zone of ascent will persist in the vicinity of the warm front where supercells continue to be observed. This zone of ascent and destabilization will advance northward through the afternoon and corresponds to the corridor of greatest tornado potential. South of the warm front, the severe threat appears more marginal where the ascent is shallow along the weak convergence bands, and radar data indicate a lack of deep convection.

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