As the front begins to move across Central Alabama on Saturday, we will see breezy conditions across the area, with some stronger wind gusts exceeding 40 MPH, especially over the western two-thirds of the area.
The above image is from the latest run of the NAM-3k model showing peak wind gusts between now and midnight Saturday night. The higher wind gusts will be closer to where the remnants of Tropical Storm Olga will pass through the southeast as it makes its way northward along the front.
Those higher gusts will take place over the northwestern parts of the area and up into North Alabama, where we could see gusts in the 40-50 MPH range.
For locations along and near the I-59 corridor in Central Alabama, wind gusts could top out in the 35-45 MPH range.
For locations in the southeastern corner of Central Alabama, peak wind gusts may only top out in the 30-40 MPH range.
The European model closely agrees with the NAM’s latest solution, but the GFS sees the peak wind gusts only topping out in the 30-40 MPH range across Central Alabama.
Nearly all of Central Alabama is in a Marginal Risk for severe storms throughout all of Saturday with the main threats being damaging winds up to 60 MPH and a brief tornado or two. The main window for those stronger to severe storms will be from 10:00 am to 10:00 pm from west to east across Central Alabama.
For the western-third, it will be from 10:00 am to 3:00 pm. For the central-third, it will be from 1:00 pm to 6:00 pm. For the eastern-third, it will be from 4:00 pm to 10:00 pm.
There will be a great deal of shear in place but instability still looks to remain rather weak. Lapse rates continue to appear to be too stable as well. But this is the Fall Severe Weather Season in Central Alabama… we have to be prepared and stay on our toes.