What To Expect This Weekend Across Central Alabama, Severe Storms Possible On Monday


We can expect most of the rain activity over the eastern half of the area. As you can see by the latest run of the GFS valid today at 1:00 pm, much of the activity will have pushed over into much of Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas. Rain chances range from 30% to 80% across Central Alabama from west to east. Unfortunately, we are only expecting around 1/4 inch of rain and less across the area with the heavier totals well east of I-65. There will be a good bit of people who may not even see a raindrop today west of I-65. It will be a little breezy today, but the higher wind gusts should stay localized to the southeast corner of the area mainly south of I-85, where gusts up to 20-30 MPH are possible. Skies will be mostly cloudy to complete overcast with highs reaching the lower 60s to the lower 70s. We should be dry for late tonight and through the overnight hours with lows in the lower to mid-50s.


Sunday will be a much warmer day across Central Alabama as we’ll have warm air advection out ahead of an approaching cold front. Skies will start off mostly cloudy but will become mostly clear by the afternoon hours. Afternoon highs will get up into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Nestor will be moving off of the east coast and starting its eastward journey over the open waters of the Atlantic.


We’ll have a strong cold front begin to move into the western parts of Central Alabama during the afternoon hours. The front will make it through the area and move into Georgia by the overnight hours. There will be just enough instability along with shear that there will be a threat of isolated damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado or two. The main window for strong to severe storms will be from 3:00 pm on Monday afternoon to 3:00 am on Tuesday morning. A Slight Risk is up for locations west of a line from Hazel Green to Brookwood to Demopolis, while a Marginal Risk is up for much of the rest of North/Central Alabama. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

I’ll have updates on the blog throughout the day on Tropical Storm Nestor and on the potential for severe storms on Monday.

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