A tropical disturbance that is currently located over the Yucatan peninsula will eventually move over the Bay of Campeche and continue on a north and northeastward track over the Gulf of Mexico. The European model shows that the low will make into the southwestern parts of Central Alabama during the late-night hours on Saturday and into the predawn hours on Sunday. The GFS is in close agreement with the path but the timing is just a little slower with the arrival putting it late Sunday making it to Central Alabama.
Even if this disturbance doesn’t develop into a depression, it could be a good rainmaker for Central Alabama especially on all of Saturday and into the early parts of Sunday. Of course, this is a tropical system so the forecast could and probably will change. Right now, confidence is not that high on placement and timing on this disturbance, so we’ll get a better idea through the weekend.
Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center on this disturbance:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Guatemala, southeastern Mexico, and adjacent waters of the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development by Thursday and Friday when the system is located over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.