At 12:45 pm across Central Alabama, we have mostly clear skies across a good portion of the area while some clouds have started to move into the northwestern parts of the area thanks to an approaching cold front. Radar at this time is free of any returns, and for much of Central Alabama, it should stay that way through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Temperatures were in the mid-80s to the lower 90s across the area. The cool spot was Haleyville at 86 degrees while the warm spot was Uniontown at 92 degrees. Birmingham and Tuscaloosa were both at 90 degrees. Anniston and Montgomery were both at 88 degrees.
Today maybe someone’s lucky day in the rain department, especially if you live north and west of the I-59 corridor. A cold front will move into the area that will bring a chance of isolated to scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms for those locations, with chances increasing as you travel northwest. The rest of Central Alabama will stay dry with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s across the area. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will start to diminish after sunset with everyone north and west of the I-59 corridor being dry by midnight. The rest of the area will remain dry with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the mid-60s to the lower 70s.
Tuesday’s weather will go back to being really warm to hot and dry across the northern half of Central Alabama as the cold front will be moving into the southern half of the area and actually stalling out just south of the area. That will keep the isolated to scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances confined south of a line from Carrollton to Jemison to Five Points. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy and highs will be in the upper 80s to the mid-90s across the area. The higher rain chances will be in the southwestern parts of the area, but chances only top out around 30%.
Tropical Storm Jerry will soon be making a hard right turn to the east-northeast and away from any land. It will pass just to the north of Bermuda on late Tuesday through midday Wednesday, and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the island. The good news is that Jerry is not expected to strengthen, but large swells and life-threatening rip currents are expected during the next few days. No threat to the US Mainland.
Tropical Storm Lorenzo looks to be a fish storm and should not affect any land as he will eventually curve off to the northwest. Lorenzo should strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday morning or earlier. No threat to the US Mainland.
The one we’ll have to keep our eye on is Tropical Storm Karen. While she is struggling to remain a tropical storm at this point due to shear, the official forecast track shows that she will make a hard left turn to the west by Friday morning. Conditions look to become more favorable for strengthening and Karen may become a hurricane by late Saturday. Some of the members of the ensemble model show her heading toward the Florida coast. We’ll have to watch and see where she heads as there is uncertainty after five days. The GFS was hinting earlier that she makes it into the Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday of next week.
ON THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
2005 – Hurricane Rita reached the Texas/Louisiana border area near Sabine Pass as a category-3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A storm surge of at least 15 feet flooded parts of Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes, where sugar cane crop losses were estimated near $300 million. An 8-foot storm surge in New Orleans overtopped the provisionally-repaired levees (from Hurricane Katrina damage) and caused additional flooding. A total of 10 fatalities were reported, and preliminary damage estimates ranged between $4-5 billion.