Ridging will be in strong control of our weather pattern this weekend which will keep us dry and will be the driving force of pushing Tropical Storm Jerry off to the north and northeast away from the US mainland. That means for us plenty of sunshine and very little in any clouds with highs reaching the upper 80s to the lower 90s across the area. Skies will be clear tonight with lows dropping into the lower to mid-60s. A few colder spots will drop into the 50s.
The ridge does begin to weaken just a little bit but it stays in control. That will keep us hot and dry once again with plenty of sun and highs back up into the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
We’ll have a front approaching from the west and northwest and it will move into the northern parts of the state during the day. There may be just enough moisture with it to kick off a few isolated showers and thunderstorms for the extreme northern and northwestern parts of Central Alabama during the main heating of the day, while the rest of the area looks to stay dry. Any activity will diminish quickly after sunset. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the mid-90s.
The front scoots farther to the south into the southern parts of Central Alabama which mean there is the potential for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours for the southwestern quarter of the area. Unfortunately, the rest of the area looks to remain dry. Afternoon highs will be back up into the upper 80s to the mid-90s.
The front starts to move back northward as a warm front which may bring a very slight chance of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area during the afternoon hours, but chances look very slim at this point. Highs will be in the lower to mid-90s.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY
Unfortunately, the Heat Miser fires the blast furnace back up to end off the work week as we dry back out as far as rain chances. Skies will be mostly sunny and afternoon highs will be back up into the mid to upper 90s across the area on both days.
As of the 4:00 am update, Jerry has weakened back down into a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds at 65 MPH. The latest official forecast track has Jerry moving northwest through Sunday afternoon then beginning a curve back to the northeast. While Jerry is no threat to the US mainland, Bermuda is directly in the center of the cone. Conditions will begin to deteriorate there during the day on Tuesday.
We also have three other hotspots out there across the tropics. The wave that will be moving off of the coast of Africa is likely to become a depression or storm by the beginning of the workweek. The tropical wave that is east of the Winward Islands has a 50/50 shot of becoming a depression within the next five days, but every member of the ensemble have it curving back to the north and northeast by Tuesday or Wednesday. The third wave will struggle mightily as shear will keep it from developing as it affects Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. No threats to the US mainland at this point.
ON THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
1938 – A great hurricane smashed into Long Island and bisected New England causing a massive forest blowdown and widespread flooding. Winds gusted to 186 mph at Blue Hill MA, and a storm surge of nearly thirty feet caused extensive flooding along the coast of Rhode Island. The hurricane killed 600 persons and caused 500 million dollars damage. The hurricane, which lasted twelve days, destroyed 275 million trees. Hardest hit were Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Long Island NY. The “Long Island Express” produced gargantuan waves with its 150 mph winds, waves which smashed against the New England shore with such force that earthquake-recording machines on the Pacific coast clearly showed the shock of each wave.
1989 – Hurricane Hugo slammed into the South Carolina coast about 11 PM, making landfall near Sullivans Island. Hurricane Hugo was directly responsible for thirteen deaths and indirectly responsible for twenty-two others. A total of 420 persons were injured in the hurricane, and the damage was estimated at eight billion dollars, including two billion dollars damage to crops. Sustained winds reached 85 mph at Folly Beach SC, with wind gusts as high as 138 mph. Wind gusts reached 98 mph at Charleston, and 109 mph at Shaw AFB. The biggest storm surge occurred in the McClellanville and Bulls Bay area of Charleston County, with a storm surge of 20.2 feet reported at Seewee Bay. Shrimp boats were found one-half mile inland at McClellanville.