Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine has gathered a closed circulation and is starting to become better organized. Therefore the National Hurricane Center has now determined that a tropical depression has formed around 240 miles east-southeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. Winds continue to be at 30 MPH, but the biggest change is that movement to the northwest has accelerated at 8 MPH. Pressure remains at 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. Here is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019
…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS…
…FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI…230 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 75.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and east of the east coast of Florida during Saturday and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are still possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night.
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:
The Bahamas…2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South Carolina…2 to 4 inches.
STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to produce significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.