Information straight from the National Hurricance Center…
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019
…DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY…
…AIR FORCE PLANE STILL INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 74.2 West. The system has been meandering during the past few hours but is expected to resume a slow-motion toward the northwest and north-northwest later today. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight, and along or near the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Preliminary data from an Air Force Reconnaissance plane indicate that the disturbance is becoming better organized, and is anticipated that a tropical depression or a tropical storm will likely form later today or tonight.
Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days… high…90 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 MB (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night.
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:
The Bahamas…2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina…2 to 4 inches.
STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to produce significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.