It’s A Busy Time Out In The Tropics

The latest tropical update from the National Hurricane Center shows one hurricane, two tropical storms, and two more areas of interest as of 3:00 pm this afternoon.

Hurricane Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH and is currently located 115 east of Jacksonville, Florida. Minimum central pressure is at 962 MB and movement is to the north-northwest at 9 MPH. The latest official forecast track has Dorian continuing to slowly follow the curve of the southeastern US Atlantic coastline while picking up in forward speed. By Thursday morning, the center will be located offshore even with the southern South Carolina shores, then will be very close to Cape Lookout, North Carolina on Friday morning. After that forward speed really picks up and Dorian moves rapidly away from the east coast to the northeast.

Rainfall amounts of 4-10 inches can be expected along most of the coastline with localized amounts of up to and possibly over 15 inches in parts of the Carolinas. Tropical-storm-force winds are already being felt on the coasts and just inland in Florida, Georgia and the southern part of South Carolina. Life-threatening storm surge and flooding will continue through at least into late Friday especially for those located ahead of the center.

Tropical Storm Fernand is currently moving onshore over northeastern Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH. Six to twelve inches of rainfall with localized amounts up to 18 inches can be expected over the area which will lead to flooding issues. Fernand is expected to weaken into a depression shortly and become a remnant low by late Thursday.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is currently located around 740 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is currently moving to the northwest at 50 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 MPH and the minimum central pressure is at 1002 MB. Gabrielle will be no threat to land as she is expected to continue to move northwest until Sunday afternoon then move northward over the open Atlantic on Monday, possibly becoming a hurricane.

Another area of low pressure (orange X on the graphic) has a 60% chance of becoming a depression over the next two days as conditions are conducive for some development. The disturbance is currently located around 150 miles northeast of Bermuda. By Saturday, conditions will deteriorate and further development is unlikely. No threat to land as it will move northeastward over open waters.

And last but not least, a tropical wave is about to emerge off of the African coast (yellow X on the graphic) and will be moving into an environment that will be conducive for slow development. It is possible that we could see a depression over the weekend or early next week as the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 50% chance of development.

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