Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HARD ON SUNDAY
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 170 MI…270 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI…570 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB…27.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… Andros Island
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should move to be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 MB (27.91 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
Northwestern Bahamas…10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells will begin to affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.