SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 400 MI…645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 575 MI…925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the well-defined eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.
Data from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Dorian is anticipated to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 950 MB (28.05 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning Saturday night.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
Northwestern Bahamas…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States…6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.