Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 545 MI…880 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 375 MI…605 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 MB…28.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 71.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.
Data from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 948 MB (28.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning Saturday night.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
Northwestern Bahamas…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States…6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to the advice given by local emergency officials.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to the advice given by local emergency officials.
3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds, and rainfall is possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the Florida peninsula.
4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.