Marginal Risk For Severe Storms For The Rest Of The Afternoon & Evening Hours

With the combination of daytime heating, higher humidity, high instability, and a tropical system moving close-by, we have the potential of a few severe storms that may include damaging winds up to 60 MPH and a few brief spin-up tornadoes.

A Marginal Risk of severe storms is up along and west of a line from Addison (Winston Co.) to Bessemer (Jefferson Co.) to Gordonville (Lowndes Co.). A sliver of the western parts of the area west of a line from Sulligent (Lamar Co.) to York (Sumter Co.) is under a Slight Risk throughout the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours.

At 3:15 pm, we have a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms across the extreme western parts of Central Alabama with some scattered storms over in the south-central parts of the area stretching from roughly around Marion to Prattville down to just west of Troy. At this point, none of these storms are showing any rotation, but we’ll have to watch very closely as any one of these cells could start spinning very quickly.

For the rest of Central Alabama outside of the severe risks, scattered showers and storms are possible, some of which could become strong with gusty winds. There is no threat of tornadoes outside of the risk locations.

Latest On Barry From The NHC
At the 1:00 pm update, the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located by NOAA Doppler radars and surface observations about 15 miles east-southeast of Shreveport, Louisiana. Barry is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northward motion is forecast tonight through Monday morning. A motion toward the north-northeast and northeast is expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across the northwestern portions of Louisiana today, and over Arkansas tonight and Monday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring near the coast well to the southeast and south of the center. Weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported at an NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City, LA to Cameron, LA.

Hazards Affecting Land
STORM SURGE: Water levels along the southern coast of Louisiana are gradually receding. However, some minor coastal flooding is still possible through today.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over south-central Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions will persist through early this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across portions of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, eastern Arkansas, and western Tennessee.

The next update on Barry will be out right around 4:00 pm. I’ll have a post out soon after that information is released. Stay tuned.

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