LATEST DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Barry was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 92.0 West, placing the center about 40 miles south of Lafayette, Louisiana or 50 miles west of Morgan City, Louisiana. Barry is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move through southern Louisiana today, into central Louisiana tonight, and into northern Louisiana on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. As it moves inland, Barry is forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in the next few hours, and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph and a wind gust of 82 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 MB (29.33 inches).
CURRENT WATCHES & WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast from Cameron to Sabine Pass.
The Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle has been discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Mississippi coast has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Intracoastal City to Cameron.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas (including metropolitan New Orleans), and from Intracoastal City to Sabine Pass.
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City to Biloxi and for Lake Pontchartrain.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Intracoastal City to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS…3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas…1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western portions of the Tennessee Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over a small area east of the center and should persist for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area to the east of the center at this time. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.
Next intermediate update from the National Hurricane Center will be out at 1:00 pm. I’ll have a post out with the update shortly after.
All information from the National Hurricane Center.