The disturbance over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized over the morning hours along with the center of circulation becoming more defined. The latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft report now shows winds high enough for the intensity to be at 35 knots. With that being said, the National Hurricane Center has officially upgraded PTC2 to Tropical Storm Barry.
Here is the latest information from the NHC regarding Barry:
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City.
A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast from the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast east of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border…and for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans.
A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 88.7 West. Barry is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday. On the forecast track the center of Barry will be near the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday.
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River…2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches across portions of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday night or Saturday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.