Depression Likely Soon Over The Gulf, Tropical Storm Likely Within 24 Hours

GOES-16 infrared image at 7:51 AM this morning.

We still have Potential Tropical Cyclone Two out there over the northern Gulf of Mexico but is expected to be a tropical depression probably before noon today. At 7:00 am, the center was located around 115 miles to the south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River or 225 miles southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 MPH and movement is off to the west at 5 MPH. Minimum central pressure is around 1005mb, or 29.68 inches.

Here is the latest information from the National Hurricane Center:


At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana coast this weekend.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late Friday.

The associated thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Friday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days …high…near 100 percent

The minimum central pressure based on recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City…3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

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