10:00 PM Update: Barry Continues To Slowly Strengthen

Hurricane Hunter aircraft finds Barry a little stronger. Dangerous storm surge, heavy rains, and windy conditions expected across the north-central Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Barry is currently packing maximum sustained winds at 50 MPH and continues to move off to the west at 3 MPH. Minimum central pressure is at 1001 MB, or 29.56 inches. The center is located about 85 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River and around 165 miles southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana. Here is the latest from the NHC:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Intracoastal City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 89.4 West. Barry is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and then move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the south of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River…3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday and Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the Alabama coast.

The next update will be out at 4:00 am. Hopefully I’m awake and have it posted. Have a great night.

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