Early Wednesday Look At Invest 92L; Depression Likely By Late Today

All the signs point to us having a tropical depression develop due south of us over the northern Gulf of Mexico at some point during the day today and strengthening into Tropical Storm Barry as early as this evening or early on Thursday. While it is not for certain as of yet, we could see a period of rapid intensification possibly on late Friday to early Saturday which may bring Barry up to hurricane strength.

As of this morning, the location of Invest 92L is over the northern Gulf of Mexico due south of Destin, Florida. We are already seeing thunderstorms being pulled around the southern-side of the circulation and organization is well underway.

Many of the forecast models have Invest 92L ramping up to a tropical storm as it drifts westward and eventually looks to make landfall somewhere along the western Gulf Coast of Louisiana to the northeastern Gulf Coast of Texas sometime on Saturday, possibly as a low-grade hurricane.

There are increasing chances of wind and storm surge impacts along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Upper Texas Coast, and tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be issued as early as today for a portion of that area. At this point, it is still too early to determine the exact magnitude and location of these impacts.

No matter of the storm track and intensity, we can expect heavy rainfall across the Florida Panhandle westward to the Upper Texas Coast and extending inland across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, much of Louisiana, and eastern Texas. Current rainfall forecast from the WPC show 1.50-2.50 inches possible across Central Alabama through Monday morning, while as much as 4.00-12.00 inches will be possible from Seagrove Beach, Florida, to Cameron, Louisiana.

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. I believe that when they make that flight, they will find a tropical depression has formed. We’ll have to wait and see.

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