The center of low pressure has now moved over the waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico and we can already see a good bit of convection around the north side of the system. I have a strong feeling that we’ll see this start to wrap around the center of the low and gain tropical characteristics by tomorrow.
The National Hurricane Center has now upped the odds of a tropical depression forming within the next two days to 90%. The environment is conducive for development. Water temperatures are very warm across the northern Gulf of Mexico and there is very little in the way of shear. A depression is expected to form late Wednesday or early Thursday as the center moves slowly to the west. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches may need to be issued for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
The latest rainfall estimated are out from the WPC and we see that much of Alabama will stay under one inch of rainfall between now and Sunday at 7:00 pm. One to two inches of rainfall is expected across the Alabama Gulf Coast and just inland. Heavier amounts of four to eight inches can be expected across much of central and southern Louisiana and into the extreme southwestern parts of Mississippi. Note: this is based on the current thinking and will change as the forecast becomes more refined.
Here are the key messages from the NHC on the developing tropical situation:
• A tropical depression is expected to form late Wednesday or Thursday from a broad area of low pressure moving slowly westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
• There is an increasing chance of wind and storm surge impacts along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Upper Texas Coast, and Tropical Storm, Hurricane, and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of that area on Wednesday. However, it is still too soon to determine the exact magnitude and location of these impacts.
• Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of the system, heavy rainfall is expected from the Florida Panhandle to the Upper Texas Coast extending inland across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, much of Louisiana, and eastern Texas.
Central Alabama Weather 