A Look Ahead At The Next 7 Days

A Cloudy And Wet Monday Ahead

A cold front will slowly move south through the area throughout the day and will probably stall out near the southern edge of the area. A line of showers will be moving along the front and will be weakening as it progresses through the area. Another line of showers may develop during the evening hours tonight and start to move to the north, as the low-level flow out of the southwest will overrun the front. When the rain is not falling, skies will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy. Afternoon highs will reach the low 60s to the mid 70s across the area, with the warmer spots being in the southeastern parts of the area. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and the low 60s from north to south throughout the area.

The latest run of the European and GFS forecast models (as I’m typing at 10PM Sunday night) are in pretty close agreement on rainfall totals up until midnight tonight, with most in Central Alabama receiving just over 0.25 inches and less. The latest NAM-4k is a little more aggressive with the totals (and might be a little too aggressive) and is painting much of the Central Alabama area receiving 0.5 inches or less, with a few spots in the northwestern parts of the area getting up to and just over 0.75 inches. So for the safe forecast will be to say that some in Central Alabama could receive more than 0.25 inches, but most will get right at that or less.

Birmingham’s Climatology And Records
The normal high for December 12th is 57, while the normal low is 36. The record high for today was set back in 1971 at 78. The record low was set back in 1962 at 4.

Tuesday Will Feature More Clouds And Rain
There will be a weak wave that will move along the front on Tuesday, in which could make the front move back to the north slightly. This will keep rain chances in the forecast throughout the day, with rain totals of 0.2 or less likely for most north of US-80 and I-85, with higher amounts along and south of that. With dewpoints creeping up into the low and mid 60s, along with some weak instability values, a few thunderstorms are possible. We’ll keep an eye on those to see if any may get strong. Afternoon highs will range throughout the 60s from north to south, with a few 70s possible in the southeastern corner of the area.

Wednesday Through Friday
Clouds will be decreasing throughout the day on Wednesday, as another cold front invades the area and makes it’s way through. Before the front pushes all the way through Central Alabama, a few showers are still possible for areas along and south of I-85 and US-80. Those showers will have exited the state by the time the front reaches that part of the area. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s from north to south throughout the area, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s from north to south.

Mostly clear skies will persist throughout the day and evening on Thursday, and into the late morning hours on Friday before more clouds move in ahead of the next rain-maker on the weekend. Forecast models are keeping Friday dry for now, but we’ll keep an eye on that. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s on both days, with lows in the 20s and 30s for early Friday morning, and 40s for early Saturday morning.

Possible Strong To Severe Storms For The Start Of The Weekend
Strong wind fields and higher dewpoints will be invading the area on Saturday, along with a cold front. It is still too early to nail down the actual threats at this time, but models are showing decent agreement in synoptic features. Thunderstorms are likely for the late evening and into the day on Sunday as the cold front will be making its way through. Highs will be up in the 60s on Saturday, with 60s and 70s on Sunday.

At The Beach
From the beautiful beaches of Fort Morgan over to the majestic sands of Panama City Beach, partly sunny skies with some patchy fog and some showers possible on Monday, with highs in the 70s. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs at or just above 70 degrees. Thursday and Friday will feature mostly clear to sunny skies, and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s on Thursday, and low 60s on Friday.

National Extremes
McAllen Texas recorded the warmest high temperature for Sunday, at 88 degrees. The coldest low temperature for Saturday night into the early morning hours on Sunday was recorded 5 miles northwest of Ash Lake Minnesota, at -26 degrees.

On This Day In Weather History: 1989
The worst tornado of record for western Washington State tracked south of Seattle, traveling five miles, from Des Moines to Kent. The tornado, 50 to 200 yards in width, began as a waterspout over Puget Sound. One person was injured and the tornado caused half a million dollars damage.

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