STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
Your Monday will start off partly to mostly cloudy with winds already picking up out of the south-southeast at 10-20 MPH range for most of Central Alabama, with the higher elevations mostly above 1,000 feet increasing to the 30-40 MPH range. Gusts of 50 MPH will be possible in those higher elevations. Afternoon highs will make it mostly into the 70s.
The latest run of the NAM-4km is showing a few scattered showers developing during the late morning hours until the main squall line moves into the extreme western parts of the state somewhere in or near the 5PM to 7PM time frame, then moving into the Birmingham area in or near the 9PM to 11PM time frame, and making it to the southeastern parts of Central Alabama by the late morning hours on Tuesday.
At the moment of typing this post (9PM on Sunday night), areas west of a line from Huntsville to Pell City to Clanton to Greenville have been defined under the “marginal” risk for severe storms, with strong straight line winds being the main threat, but the possibility of a tornado or two in the extreme western parts of the state is not out of the question. Supercell composite parameter is pretty much nonexistent for areas north of I-20, but values in the 2-4 range can be found in the southwestern parts of the area. Significant tornado parameter values are in the 1-2 range in those same areas. This just confirms what the SPC is saying as far as the threats. Just about the whole state of Mississippi has been defined under a “slight” risk, with the southwestern counties in an “enhanced” risk.
SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
For most of the daytime on Tuesday, we should have a decent break from the rain, even though I can’t rule out a chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm. Afternoon highs will make it up into the mid to upper 70s, with a few spots touching 80 degrees. Action will start to pick up once again on Tuesday night through the afternoon hours on Wednesday. The latest run of the NAM-4km is showing some pretty impressive numbers on the supercell composite model, especially in the western and northwestern counties of the state. Significant tornado parameter numbers are in the 3 to 4 range in those same areas, so damaging straight line winds and a tornado or two are definitely possible. Once we get tonight’s squall line through the area, we’ll have a better idea of what to expect for Tuesday night’s round.
THE DROUGHT WILL LIKELY TAKE A GOOD PUNCH TO THE GUT
The latest numbers off of the GFS is showing that parts of Central Alabama, including the Birmingham area, could receive well over 4 inches of rainfall between today and the end of the storms on Wednesday, with most of the rest of the state with totals well over 2 and 3 inches. The southeast corner of the state will be the least lucky ones, but totals over 1 inch are possible there as well.
RAIN STARTS TO MOVE OUT ON WEDNESDAY
Showers and storms will be likely during the daytime hours on Wednesday, but those chances will start to drop as the evening hours move in for Central Alabama. All rain should be out of the area by the time daybreak arrives on Thursday morning. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 60s to the mid 70s from the northwestern parts of the area to the southeastern parts. Skies will become partly cloudy for the overnight hours, and lows will dip down into the 30s and 40s.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
Skies will be mostly clear to start off with on Thursday, becoming clear for the late afternoon hours all the way through the late afternoon hours on Friday, before a few stray clouds move across for Friday night. Highs will mostly be in the 50s with a few 60s in the southern parts of the area, with lows in the 30s. A few colder spots will drop down into the 20s.
GARDENDALE CHRISTMAS PARADE
The parade will start off at 6PM on Thursday night, and with clear skies, the temperatures will be pretty chilly. The temperature will be at or near 46 at 6PM, with a very slight westerly wind at 2-4 MPH, and dropping to near 40 by 8PM and the lighting of the Christmas Tree. It will be a great night to bundle up and enjoy the free hot chocolate that will be handed out in various spots along the parade route.
THE WEEKEND AHEAD
Clouds will start to move in for the weekend, and with more clouds, another chance of rain for the area. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy on Saturday, with rain chances starting to increase during the early morning hours on Sunday and lasting through the remainder of the day. Right now, chances look best for areas south of I-20, but rain is possible throughout all of Central Alabama. Temperatures will be cooler as well, with highs in the 40s and 50s for Saturday, and 50s for Sunday.
FOR THOSE WHO ARE BEACHBOUND
Showers and storms will affect the coast Tuesday, again Wednesday night and finally Sunday over the next week. Highs will be in the 70s through Wednesday, which is quite nice for November. As we turn the page into December, things will cool down into the lower 60s.. Lows that are near 70F Tuesday and Wednesday will fall back into the 40s by the end of the week. Water temperatures continue to be in the middle 60s.
UPDATE ON THE TROPICS
The Atlantic Basin is quiet as of now, and no development is expected throughout the week and weekend. The last day of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is November 30th.
BIRMINGHAM’S CLIMATOLOGY AND RECORDS
The normal high for November 28th is 60, while the normal low is 39. The record high for today was set back in 1908 at 77. The record low was set back in 1950 at 20.
NO OUTDOOR BURNING AT ALL
The latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor for the state of Alabama now shows that over 97% of the state is now classified under “severe” drought conditions, with 82% of the state under “extreme” drought conditions, and over 35% of the state under “exceptional” drought conditions. A Drought Emergency continues in effect, banning any outdoor burning for all counties in the state. Click here for more information. Be sure to conserve water as well, as the Birmingham Water Works remains in a “Stage 4 Drought Emergency.”
ON THIS DAY IN 2005
A major winter storm affected parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas during the 27th-28th. Snowfall accumulations of 16-20 inches were observed in parts of eastern South Dakota, while wind gusts exceeding 60 mph also accompanied the snow, creating blizzard conditions. Thousands of power outages were caused by the combination of strong winds and heavy snow. In South Dakota, about 8,000 utility poles and 10,000 miles of transmission line were brought down by the storm.
Central Alabama Weather 