Looking at the latest run of the GFS, the next best chance of some rainfall looks to be on the early morning hours through the midday hours on Saturday, November 19. A low pressure system will be moving through the upper parts of Wisconsin and Michigan, and it will be dragging along a cold front. That front will be approaching the state on late Friday night (11/18) and move through during the morning and afternoon hours on Saturday (11/19).
It definitely will not be a drought-busting rainfall, but early estimates from this model run has the Birmingham area receiving somewhere between 0.25 inches and 0.50 inches. At that date, we will be up to 61 consecutive rain-free days in the Birmingham area. It is just hard to forecast any rain right now without any ground moisture to work with. Let’s cross our fingers that this pans out, and we actually get more than modeled.
We really need any rainfall right now. As I type this, there is an active fire on the side of Interstate 65 North that several fire departments are currently battling. It is only about 1.5 miles away (as the crow flies), and that is a little too close for comfort for me.